Everybody has an opinion on what the San Antonio housing market. Is it up? Down? Somewhere in between? As a an active full time Realtor I have an idea of what I think the market is doing and I’ll share that with you. But first let’s take a look at the actual statistics and see if we can learn something from them.

Here is a chart of San Antonio Home sales and average price from the Texas Real Estate Center at Texas A&M:

The chart above shows us that home sales are down from the peak years of 2005-2006-2007 and that while average price is still up it has flattened out a bit. The big question that most homeowners and homebuyers want to know is whether the San Antonio housing market has bottomed and have we avoided the dreaded double dip that the national news is broadcasting? Well, that depends.

Let’s look at some more up to date statistics that our office manager, Sam Schifano, compiles for single family homes every month:

• Sales in May 2011 (1530) are lower than those from May 2010 (1900).
• Total sales this year through May 2011 (6437) are lower than through May 2010 (7322).
• Total inventory is slightly up (7.47 months supply, but let’s wait until we look at the inventory/price range breakdown).
• Months of inventory decreased in these price ranges: $75,000-$99,999 (5.98 months), $125,000-$149,999 (5.70 months), $300,000-$349,999 (9.00 months), and $800,000-$899,999 (23.29 months).
• All other price ranges either stayed the same or increased in months of inventory.

It is important to note that the above figures are also products of and resulting from the buyer stimulus package that was in effect through the end of June, 2010. this artificial stimulus definitely skewed the market and brought many buyers forward in their home buying ($8000 tax credits will do that). Now that the stimulus is gone and does not appear to be coming back the housing market will attempt to return to equilibrium due to normal market forces.

The real estate industry both nationwide and locally are watching the trends. What happens nationally affects us locally in several ways: mortgage rates, lending standards, political policy towards housing, and our own state of mind. I have my own ideas and they are these: housing locally is at or near a bottom (partly because we don’t have the wild swings up and down in value that some states have), location (as always) plays a big role in pricing and availability, buyers are in general somewhat afraid to “pull the trigger” and are shopping and bargaining hard for deals, and seller’s pricing power depends a lot on their location, price range, and condition of their home.

Over the next weeks and months I will be going deep into the statistics in popular San Antonio neighborhoods to compare where we are now with where we were 5 years ago, with a focus on what prices have done on a price per square foot ratio. If you have any suggestions on neighborhoods you want me to consider send me an email at sanantoniorealestateguy@gmail.com . Stick around and check back and until then…

All the Best!

Mark